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WRM Bulletin
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Number 76 - November 2003 The Focus of this Issue: Climate Change |
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THE GOOD GUYS
THE BAD GUYS
- The New Good and Bad Guys in Climate Politics – and How to Tell Them Apart The climate crisis is a lot like other environmental crises. Coming to terms with the science is the least of the problems. What’s harder is to organize effective and democratic strategies for action. What’s the political landscape in which climate activists must operate? Who can you make alliances with and how? Who are the good guys, who are the bad guys? To a lot of environmentalists, especially in the North, it all used to seem pretty simple. The good guys were the guys who paid attention to the warnings of climate scientists, who promoted energy conservation and renewables, who got international negotiations going on what to do about global warming. You made alliances with them and tried to push governments into action to stop greenhouse gases from pouring into the atmosphere. The bad guys were the guys who denied the climate was changing, or said that the changes weren’t anything humans could or should do anything about. They claimed things should go on pretty much as before. You tried to convince them and others that they were wrong, and fought their efforts to block international negotiations. The details could be left for another time. In a few small corners of the planet, it may still feel like this is what climate politics is all about. After all, there are still powerful factions around saying that the weather is nothing to fret about, including US President Bush and the group of companies he speaks for. If you focus only on this rearguard, you’ll probably still see today’s big climate debate as between those who want to “do something” and those who don’t. Most journalists reporting climate fall into this category, continuing to build their stories around a simplistic “US bad, Kyoto good” or “Exxon/Mobil bad, greenies good” type of political analysis. But this way of looking at things is fast becoming obsolete. Telling the good guys from the bad guys is no longer so easy. And coming up with effective strategies for action is even harder. It’s clear something funny is going on when British Petroleum, admitting that the earth is warming, renames itself “Beyond Petroleum” and Shell International sets up a windmill in front of its London office to “do something” about climate change – while both go on trying to increase oil and gas sales. It’s revealing when the European Union and the notorious energy trader Enron both call on President Bush to recognize the seriousness of climate change – while EU emissions keep going up and up and Enron shows no sign of getting out of the fossil energy business. And there’s a strong smell of rat when firms large and small claim they are helping solve the climate problem by investing in tree plantations, and delegates to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change – once proclaimed as a great hope for climate action – concentrate their attention on trading schemes and development projects which only exacerbate global warming. In short, while more and more people claim to be taking some kind of climate action, things seem only to be getting worse. No wonder even environmentalists are confused. Too Much Fossil Carbon with No Place to Go It’s clearly time to reassess climate politics. But how to start? One way is to return to the old insight that global warming, like other environmental problems, is not so much as a physical phenomenon as a political, social and economic one. Viewed this way, the climate crisis is nothing new. It’s just one more example of a centuries-old problem – overflowing waste dumps – closely tied up with power and rights. Since the industrial revolution, some human societies have taken a lot of new carbon out of the ground and, by burning it, dumped it above ground. In effect, they have stashed this carbon in the atmosphere and the oceans as carbon dioxide and in vegetation and surface rocks as other carbon compounds. These above-ground systems are pretty much able to handle above-ground carbon released through everyday biomass burning. But they are not built to recycle all the new carbon from underground – which amounts to a much bigger pool – into a safe form. This fossil-origin carbon tends to build up in the atmosphere, where it causes global warming. This overflow cannot go on indefinitely. If all the remaining fossil carbon were taken out of the earth and dumped above ground, the earth would probably become uninhabitable. The thinking person’s response to a dump overflow this serious is to slow or halt the production of the substance that winds up in the dump. Reduce the dangers of dumped DDT or chlorofluorocarbons or polyvinyl chloride? Stop producing them. Reduce the dangers of climate change? Stop taking fossil fuels out of the ground. There’s nothing new or shocking about this conclusion. Even the former Saudi Arabian oil minister, Sheikh Zaki Yamani, has pointed out that “the Stone Age did not end for lack of stone, and the Oil Age will end long before the world runs out of oil.” Most fossil fuels are going to have to be left in the ground, just as most of the world’s stone is never going to be transformed into arrowheads or Stonehenges. This is no big tragedy. The world did not end when Stonehenges stopped being built. And it need not suffer unduly if plans are made now to ensure that most coal now under the ground never sees the light of day. The firms that use the most carbon dumps, unfortunately, don’t look at it that way. It’s not in their nature, or that of the system in which they play a part, to stop producing the stuff filling up the dumps or to take up new technologies which could invade their current core markets. Just as horse traders weren’t inclined to invest in the first auto industries, oil companies are not eager to shift out of hydrocarbon development, nor car manufacturers to go into some other business. Instead of reducing the flow of carbon from below ground, such firms – and their helpers – hope against hope to find new above-ground dumps to stow it in. Or they bank on being able to exclude others from using existing dumps. There’s a common euphemism which can be applied to this process. Carbon dump space, like oil before it, has become an economically scarce resource. That means not just that more people are using a physically limited space. It also means that carbon dumps are now part of an economic system that makes it hard for the majority to stop a small group of elites from using too much of them – or for the elites to stop themselves. Market Failures The mainstream approach to this crisis is to formalize, intensify and manage this scarcity by turning dump space into a commodity and trying to “give it a price”. But this isn’t working. One example of this privatization-oriented approach is the Kyoto Protocol. Kyoto would hand Northern industry billions of dollars’ worth of rights to use existing carbon dump space, allowing it to sell any rights it didn’t use. But two problems immediately crop up. First, the right to sell this dump space would go only to the North, which already uses it the most. While Southern countries would be allowed to go on using existing dump space, they would not get any rights to sell it. Second, many times more rights would be given out than there is physical dump space. In 2012, the Northern beneficiaries of Kyoto would be allowed to go on making close to 100 per cent of the underground-aboveground transfers of carbon that they made in 1990. Scientific consensus is that this would have to be cut to 20-40 per cent of 1990 levels to stop dump overflow. This is one reason why the price of carbon dump space bears no relation to its climatic value. Within nations, too, rights to buy and sell existing dump space would go almost exclusively to heavy users – and, again, far in excess of what there is to give away. For example, in the UK, under the EU emissions trading scheme, between half and two-thirds of dumping rights worth billions of pounds are to be handed to power-generating corporations and over 10 per cent to oil and gas firms. Almost none of the other people who use the dump space being given away – ranging from Bangladeshi rice farmers to London office workers – have been consulted about the deal. Another problem is this. Just as the commodification and pricing of oil drove private firms and nations to seek new petroleum supplies starting early in the last century, so the commodification and pricing of existing carbon dumps is encouraging a search for new dumps. Fossil-fuel-based industries want to lower carbon dump prices by finding new ones. A growing number of firms and countries hope to make money by selling them. The World Bank, carbon brokers and consultancy firms are stepping in as middlemen. As a result, two new dumps are being developed. One is to be carved out of land, forests, soils, water, even parts of the oceans. Carbon is to be shoved into new vegetation or dirt or piped into the sea. A second new dump is to be carved out of the future. Fossil-fuel users would buy permission to go on dumping by investing in activities which, while contributing still more fossil carbon flows into above-ground dumps, would be claimed to produce smaller flows than would “otherwise” be the case. Alternative futures which would use even less carbon would be dismissed as impossible. In effect, carbon would be stashed in the future. The catch is that the project of developing these new dumps is impossible. Fossil carbon, biospheric carbon, and hypothetical future carbon belong to different categories. They can’t be added to and subtracted from each other in the same climatic ledger. For a variety of technical reasons, neither of the purported new “dumps” would be able to verify its ability to take on any specified quantity of new carbon. Any price assigned to them would be arbitrary, and any market in them almost guaranteed to exacerbate climate change. Already, the International Energy Agency foresees global emissions rising by 70 per cent between 1997 and 2012. The “new dumps” project – which the Kyoto Protocol supports – could only add to that figure by illegitimately sanctioning continued transfer of carbon from below ground to the existing (and overflowing) biospheric and atmospheric dumps above. For better or worse, the world is going to have to rest content with the above-ground carbon dumps it already has. Here the contrast with oil exploration and development is sharp. Up to a point, new supplies of petroleum can be located when current ones run out. But there is no North Slope or Siberia where vast new carbon dumps are going to be found. Fossil fuel resources may be “non-renewable”, but “new carbon dumps” are, for the most part, figments of the imagination. Adding insult to injury, the attempt to open up fictitious new carbon dumps would make existing global social inequalities even worse. Southern countries in particular are already diverting badly-needed land and human ingenuity to counterproductive efforts to open new carbon dumps for the North in the hope they will be a permanent source of dollars. That hope is misplaced. But before it is finally dashed, local resistance will make life hell for many carbon dump developers around the world. Already, opposition to the new carbon schemes has welled up in Hawai’i, where locals fought a US-Japanese ocean dumping experiment; Tanzania, where farmers were cheated by a Norwegian-backed carbon plantation project; Brazil, where a pig iron producer applying for climate subsidies is being opposed by farmers and trade unions; and many other locations. The Question for Strategy A better way forward than the “market-first” approach is to stop treating both fossil fuels and carbon dumps as resources. Human survival will be in question as long as either remains subject to the current relentless dynamic of conversion, exhaustion and search for new supplies in the service of a small elite. Just as most remaining coal and oil are going to have to be left in the ground, so too the self-deceptive quest for fresh carbon dumps to receive the rich world’s emissions is going to have to be called off. Fossil carbon, biospheric carbon and hypothetical carbon cannot be put in the same accounting system and treated as the same “resource”. Five or six trees or a $50 investment in a biomass power plant can never be proved to be “climatically equal” to digging up a tonne of coal. What must emerge instead is a new politics of equitably sharing the world’s existing carbon-cycling capacity. Who are the firmest allies likely to be in such a movement? Who, on the other hand, is likely to need some convincing? Dividing off “good guys” from “bad guys” in this way is not to make a moral judgement. It is only to make realistic guesses about where the most fruitful immediate climate alliances are likely to be made. Some of the answers are surprising. For example, many of the seemingly “good guys” who want the US and Russia to sign the Kyoto Protocol are likely to fight the constructive approach sketched above tooth and nail. More and more, the Protocol is becoming a charter for facilitating further unsustainable transfers of carbon from underground to aboveground and annexing poorer countries’ resources for imaginary new carbon dumps. This drags those who are committed to getting the treaty ratified at all costs into increasingly dubious territory. Nor is being “for” tree-planting or renewable energy necessarily any longer a mark of commitment to constructive climate politics. Today a range of corporate actors are willing to support such technologies merely as a way of “compensating” and smoothing the way for further exploitation of coal and oil, with little interest in their climatic effectiveness or impacts on local peoples. In short, the questions to be asked by those seeking allies for a constructive climate movement are no longer questions like “Who is taking evidence for human-induced climate change seriously?”, “Who is committed to ‘doing something’ about global warming?”, “Who is for (or against) Kyoto?” or “Who is backing (or fighting) alternative energy sources?” Instead, they are questions like: * What social groups have the strongest interests
in working to stop flows of fossil carbon into the atmosphere? Looking over the Landscape * Reinsurers facing financial risk from catastrophic
weather events such as Swiss Re and Munich Re have strong incentives
to press for reduced underground-aboveground carbon flows and greater
business awareness of climate change. But at the same time they have
been seduced by the mirage that construction of new carbon dumps is
a “proactive” response to the issue. * Many influential NGOs active in the international Climate Action Network such as the World Wide Fund for Nature recognize the untenability of treating carbon “sink” projects such as tree plantations as carbon dumps. But naively seeking leverage with dump developers and hoping for new funding for alternative energy, they have embraced the idea of other types of new dumps as long as they meet various proposed standards of quality. Such standards tend to be unattainable in practice and will have to be loosened to let enough dump projects through to justify their existence. A New Landscape? This sketch of the new landscape of climate politics suggests that old strategic assumptions may well be ripe for revision. As old boundaries dissolve, new alliances among environmentalists, specialists, financiers, governments and corporations seeking common benefits are coming to the fore. In particular, a group of powerful NGOs are increasingly aligning themselves with corporations and against people affected by both climate change and destructive new carbon dump projects. At the same time, new and perhaps unforeseen alliances may be in the offing among others concerned with both climate change and grassroots democracy. By: Larry Lohmann, The Cornerhouse, e-mail:
larrylohmann@gn.apc.org - Those who do what governments don't For most people, the climate change issue may seem too complicated to grasp, its solution entirely in the hands of experts and governments. However, many sectors of organized civil society are making positive contributions, often in confrontation with the very governments that have committed themselves to solve it. Forest peoples Many indigenous peoples and traditional forest communities are resisting activities that not only have an impact on their living conditions but also exacerbate climate change. As noted earlier on, the main cause of climatic change is the extraction and combustion of fossil fuels, in particular oil and coal. Therefore, local struggles against oil exploitation and coal mining are helping prevent the carbon stored in hydrocarbons from being released and adding to the greenhouse effect. Many such struggles are being fought by forest communities. Among these, those of the Ogoni in Nigeria, the U’wa in Colombia, and the Cofanes in Ecuador must be highlighted, as they have succeeded in avoiding or stopping the extraction of oil on their territories. Deforestation is also an important contributor to climate change insofar as it allows the release of carbon stocked in forests. For this reason, all struggles to protect forests also contribute to climate stability. Many peoples and local communities are resisting the felling of their forests by external actors (logging, mining, shrimp farming, agricultural and livestock companies). These struggles have spread across all continents where local populations are confronting a type of “development” promoted by governments resulting in the destruction of forests for the almost exclusive benefit of large companies. Local urban communities Much greenhouse gas is released in urban centres and from nearby industrial plants. Both industry and transport release such gases, which not only have an impact on the climate, but also on people's health. In response, many urban communities – in the South and in the North – have organized themselves to force governments to impose control measures. In many places industry and transport have been forced to reduce their emissions substantially. In some cities, simple measures such as enabling the use of bicycles as a means of transport have also been adopted. All these struggles contribute considerably to emission reduction and therefore are a very valuable contribution to the solution of the climatic change problem. Non-governmental organizations As with many other issues, non-governmental organizations are playing a fundamental role, both in making the general public aware of the problem and in promoting solutions to it. Many NGOs participate in official processes, trying to get governments to adopt and implement the necessary measures to avoid global climatic change. But there are deep divisions in the environmental movement, and some organizations are supporting some of the false solutions agreed on in the Kyoto Protocol (see previous article). There is a growing need to follow up projects and processes starting to be implemented under the Clean Development Mechanism and carbon emissions trading schemes, with the aim of informing the public about associated problems and to support local affected communities. We would like to introduce three organizations who have taken on this work. One of these organizations is SinksWatch, an initiative of the World Rainforest Movement. SinksWatch is hosted by the WRM's Northern Support Office and implemented by FERN. The aim of SinksWatch is to track and scrutinize carbon sequestration projects related to the Kyoto Protocol, and to highlight their threats to forests and other ecosystems, to forest peoples as well as to the climate. The focus of SinksWatch is on tree plantation sinks projects, particularly in areas where land tenure and land use rights are in dispute. SinksWatch recognizes that there are important links between forests and climate change and advocates addressing these links in a way that honours the important role forests play in adapting to climate change and in safeguarding against the impacts of extreme weather events without justifying the continued, additional and permanent release of carbon from fossil fuel burning (email: jutta@fern.org website: http://www.sinkswatch.org ). A second organization is CDMWatch (focusing on the Clean Development Mechanism or CDM). CDM Watch is a small NGO based in Indonesia that helps build the capacity of civil society to understand and respond to the CDM and CDM projects. It provides analysis of the emerging CDM rules and issues relating to the CDM, and materials for use by Southern country NGOs when working on the CDM. CDM Watch has also been involved in developing North-South networks and campaigns on the CDM, with a major focus being on preventing it from becoming a new source of subsidies for unsustainable technologies like large dams and plantation-based carbon storage projects (email: cdmwatch@indosat.net.id website: http://www.cdmwatch.org ). The third organization is Carbon Trade Watch. Carbon Trade Watch was born in 2002 and is the newest project of the Transnational Institute. With a focus on the emerging greenhouse gas markets, Carbon Trade Watch monitors the impact of pollution trading upon environmental, social and economic justice. The inclusion of pollution trading in the Kyoto Protocol signals an historic proliferation of the free market principle in the environmental sphere. Through research and analysis, Carbon Trade Watch seeks to challenge the assumption that a liberalised marketplace is the only arena in which environmental problems can be resolved. Carbon Trade Watch also pools the work of others and acts as a meeting point for researchers, campaigners, cultural actors and communities opposing the negative impacts of pollution trading. The aim is to facilitate effective opposition to environmentally and socially destructive economic policy and create space for bottom-up solutions and alternatives to emerge. Bottom-up solutions thrive on cultural diversity and cultural expression. The Carbon Trade Watch group is organised non-hierarchically and is committed to challenging prejudice in all its forms. This is actively pursued in perspectives explored in the work, as well as being a constant part of the internal organisation of the project structure. The group believes that challenging domination is a vital part of the process of achieving a diverse spectrum of just and sustainable societies (email: info@carbontradewatch.org website: http://www.tni.org ) The Climate Justice movement As with most problems facing the world today, the issue of climatic change must be addressed from the standpoint of justice. In the year 2002, a wide group of social and environmental organizations decided to organize a Climate Justice Summit, in parallel to the Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Climate Change. From then on, progress was made and in the year 2002, the “Climate Justice Principles” were discussed and adopted (available at http://www.wrm.org.uy/actors/WSSD/Bali.html ). Their standpoint is that communities have the right to be free from climate change, its related impacts and other forms of ecological destruction; hence the aim of stopping the industrial production of greenhouse gases and associated local pollutants. Climate Justice affirms that governments are responsible for addressing climate change in a manner that is both democratically accountable to their people and in accordance with the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities. It demands that communities, particularly affected communities, play a leading role in national and international processes to address climate change, while it opposes the role of transnational corporations in shaping unsustainable production and consumption patterns and lifestyles, as well as their role in unduly influencing national and international decision-making. The Climate Justice process was a leading actor during the Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Climate Change held in New Delhi (India) in 2002. It organized a multitudinous demonstration, such as never seen before, against climatic change, with the participation of all the relevant social actors. As was to be expected, the demonstrators were not allowed to reach the Convention centre and barely a handful of representatives were allowed to enter the gardens of the meeting place. However, it was a clear demonstration that climatic change is not a matter for experts and government delegates, but is an issue in which people affected presently and in the future claim their right to participate in a decisive manner in the adoption of decisions which governments refuse to adopt. The Oilwatch Network The Oilwatch network was born inspired by the necessity to develop global strategies for communities affected by oil activities and to support the resistance processes of communities struggling against them. Amongst the functions of the network are: the exchange of information on oil company operations in each affected country, their practices of operation and the destinctive resistance movements and international campaigns against specific companies. Oilwatch seeks to increase environmental consciousness on a global scale, exposing the impacts of oil activity on tropical forests and on the local populations, establishing as well, links to the destruction of biodiversity, with climate change and with the widespread violation of human rights. Since 1997 the OILWATCH network has been calling for a moratorium on new oil exploration based on two main arguments: - the need to seriously address climate change
by slowing down the main source of generation of the greenhouse effect:
fossil fuels The moratorium to new oil explorations is not only necessary: it is posible. The case of Corta Rica is clear in this respect. Its President not only declared the country free from oil activities, but even cancelled a contract with a US based company (Harken) having close links to President Bush. Costa Rica and its government have thus shown the world that it is still posible to protect local ecosystems and peoples' livelihoods while contributing to counter climate change. What a small southern country such as Costa Rica can do can obviously be also done by other more economically powerful countries … if the political will is there (Oilwatch, e-mail: tegantai@oilwatch.org.ec ) Other emerging actors Climate change is already occurring and its impacts are being felt all over the world. This implies an increase in the number of affected people, who have started to understand the roots of the problem and are joining the ranks of those who are already struggling. Among them, we may mention: - those affected by hurricanes, droughts, floods and fires resulting from global climatic change - those affected by carbon sink projects such as monoculture tree plantations planted with this objective or by major hydroelectric dams - populations and governments of countries condemned to disappear totally or partially if measures are not adopted to counteract the greenhouse effect (in particular small island states and low-lying coastal countries) - academic sectors committed to the environment and to people, who are able to contribute research and analysis to face the problem - organizations and individuals working in defence of biodiversity and who understand that climatic change places at stake the survival of numerous ecosystems and the species that live therein. In sum, existing circumstances are showing
that solutions to the climatic change issue will only be possible if
organized civil society – in the South and in the North, in forests,
agricultural and urban areas – takes on the leading role, forcing
governments to adopt all the necessary measures to change a course that
is leading to global climate disaster. |
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